A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
